A long road of trouble ahead

The mass gathering scheduled for Feb 26 at Sanam Luang to press for the prime minister's resignation is reminiscent of the 'people power' which unseated President Marcos of the Philippines

By METTANANDO BHIKKHU

The anti-Thaksin mass gathering at Sanam Luang scheduled for Feb 26 is inspired not only by the prospect of the impeachment of the prime minister, it has carefully been planned to also celebrate the 20th anniversary of the first successful and bloodless uprising in Asia that ousted President Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines.

Apparently, the organisers of the rally have been fully aware of the similarity of the situation between Thailand under Thaksin and the Philippines under the Marcos regime.

In spite of the fact that they were both democratically elected, the two leaders successfully took over the jurisdiction of the parliament, the media as well as the military.

Their governments began in the same fashion, full of promise and commitment to the public that created strong popular movements.

However, in the end, their regimes have been equally known for their authoritarianism, corruption and embezzlement in favour of their close friends and relatives. It was the success of the uprising in Manila 20 years ago that inspired the pro-democratic alliance of Mr Sondhi Limthongkul to call for a mass demonstration in Bangkok with high hopes that soon history would repeat itself in Thailand and the infamous prime minister would be ousted in a bloodless public demonstration.

Evidently, that dream is not going to come true as easily in the case of the Thai prime minister.

One of the powerful forces that brought down the power of President Marcos was the pressure from the Catholic Church, headed by Cardinal Sin, who publicly condemned Marcos and gave full support to Madam Aquino.

Two million people crowded the streets in front of the Presidential Palace, which quickly brought the end of the Marcos regime.

This is not happening in the case of the Thai prime minister. Naturally, every member of the Ecclesiastical Council has thrown his weight behind Mr Thaksin.

Recently, in the previous public ceremony in celebration of Makha Bucha Day at Buddha Monthon, which was broadcast live all over the country, the prime minister was warmly welcomed by every senior monk sitting on the platform.

Apparently, there is no Buddhist monk who will stand up and condemn Mr Thaksin publicly.

The worst criticism that he has received was from Luangta Maha Bua, the abbot of Wat Par Bantaad in Udon Thani province, who expressed his regret for having supported the prime minister, thinking that the rich businessman was satisfied with his fortune and would not be corrupt.

It is not surprising that some huge Buddhist communities in Thailand are collaborating with the Thai Rak Thai party to organise a mass rally in support of the embattled premier. Already, the same night of Mr Sondhi's rally, a mass of Buddhists who were pro-Thaksin gathered in support of the prime minister. Needless to say, some monks who are known as social critics, remained quiet, or came asking for public harmony and reconciliation, an unthinkable scenario in current Thai society.

The Law of Karma, strongly upheld by Buddhists in Thailand, serves as a powerful support for the status quo. Indeed, anyone who has risen to power is seen through the lens of Karma that he/she is enjoying the fruition of the merit of past lives, although they may be tyrants.

However, leaders of the anti-Thaksin campaign have high hopes of impeaching the premier, and they have successfully drawn support from academics, senators, activists and NGOs. Definitely, the political struggle will last long. Thailand has just embarked on a long road of becoming another sick man of Asia, replacing the Philippines.

Wonder how many pairs of shoes does Mrs Thaksin have

Good point Mr. Valentine.

One thing tht the overthrow of Marcos did was change the immigration policy for falangs. Don't exacatly know how it changed but one guy who used to live there told me it sucks. He came back to the states. Did not ask him what he meant either.

From what I read only, it seems like teh Phillipines are not falang friendly now.

Lee your right there are many things that are similair in the two situations. What I don't know is what has the jhistory been in say the last 100 years. Is Thaksin a bad PM, based on what came before him. Or is what we see just business as usual, with someone else calling the shots.

Having been married to a Filipina, I do feel that I do have some insight into what happened there. Yes Marcus was a thief, but in seeing the Philippines during the Marcus regime and after. These are the things that that really stand out on my mind.

My first trip there the streets were clean and the infrastruturre was reaonably good. After is demise Manilla was filthy, don't know if it is still that way or not. The road system was terrible in the provinces. The electrical system can be almost non existent at times. They have always had brown outs in the Phillipnes usually a few hours in duration. Now it's not unusual to have no power for week depending on where you are.

The Amreican bases are gone, why? They supplied a lot of money to the Philippine people. Something replaced them I am assuming money was generated by that in some form, where is it?

Was the change from Marcus a benefit to the the Philppine people, don't know. But I dont see it. Thier economy is in worse trouble now then it was before.

Has all of this been beneficial to the farrng, I guess that would depend on who you ask. Some farrangs seem to be very happy there, others are not. Personally I opted for Thialand as I simply feel that the enviornment for me in Thailand is much safer. It would have been easier t go to a country where english is widely spoken, but it at the time that I looked could not offer the infrastructer that Thialand did.

The money side of farrnag and local communties from what I can tell is no different, they believe all farrangs are rich and a non ending money supply. They will try to get thier piece of the action just as much as the Thai's do.

They do have a system where in you post $50K and you have a lifetime visa or something similiar to it. But with the political climate being what it is, would you do that. Not I, that is just a law and laws are ammended all the time.

Time will tell what will happen here, Thaksin will prevail or he won't. But in any event there will not be a perfect place when it is all said and done. This guy who is taking on Thaksin is not eaxactly a alter boy himself. I doubt very seriously what he is trying to accomplish, is really for the good of the country. More the likely it is for his own self benefit so what would be left with another repeat of what already we already have and someone else being the bad guy.

A very wise friend once told me don't bring anything to Thailand that you can't afford to lose. No matter who is charge I think that will remain the best advice that anyone could give.

What I hope for is that what ever happens that it does stay peaceful.

up till the crash of 97, Chavalit was PM and the government was riddled with the old political dinosaurs and godfathers.

In 97 Chuan LeekPai and the Democrats took over. Chuan was in my opinion a principled and honest man but had to make too many deals and tradeoffs with the old political elites. His inability to turn the Thai economy around led to his leaving before his term was up.

Taksin came to power by suborning and buying-off the old political elites and absorbing the smaller political parties through money politics. Once he was firmly esconced in power a lot of the old dinosaurs found themselves either shunted out of government or powerless. So, it's a balance. Yes, Taksin can be an arrogant man, who tends to put his foot in his mouth regularly but, he's brought a new group into government that is calculating and populist. Most regular Thais like Taksin because he has run out the old guard and because he's pretty much given them what he promised; 30 baht medical plan, better economy, more jobs.. He targets those things dear to the heart of the lower classes like jobs and land reform. Of course, he hasn't come through with everything.

Taksin's big opponent, Mr. Sondhi is a former business partner of Taksin who purpotedly got burned in a big business deal. So his reasons for condemning Taksin may not just be motivated morally but for revenge.
The "big" turnouts that Sondhi's done in Lumpini park invariably (I've seen them) been 60% supporters and 40% rubber-neckers with Sondhi usually doubling the "estimate" of the crowd from what it really is..

Taksin and Marcos are not analogous. Different times, different countries, totally different cultures (Buddhist vice Catholic). The non-interference of the Sangha in Thai politics is the norm and can't be equated with Cardinal Sin's support of the opposition in the P.I. The Catholic clergy have regularly participated in opposition party support or "revolutionary theology" throughout the world. Also, was Marcos popularly elected when he was deposed or was he not ruling by emergency decree??

Although many folks have a beef with Taksin's power politics, as long as the economy in Thailand is moving forward and the Thai Rak Thai party doesn't self destruct (it's happened before in Thai politics) I can't see either impeachment or resignation in the near future.